With due respects to Francis Bacon, this is an interesting topic to write about. We come across many, many people in our lives -- and most of those go on to become friends. However, on closer examination, we sometimes find that some of those are actually not friends, but merely seasonal friends!

There are some friends who need to be trusted and respected; some to be maintained at close quarters since they may be of help to you at some stage of your life; some, with whom you worked or met during life, but never really got that close, and hence, the distance was maintained; and some others -- who only know you so they can ask for your help in their times of need! Some might disagree with these criteria, but then, these are just my thoughts.

They also say that a friend in need is a friend indeed. Rather, in hard times you find out who your true friends are. Now this bit is really the true test of the value of any friend that you may have. Suddenly, when you start applying this criteria, you may realize that most of the people you know are mere acquaintances, at best.

Most of us have Facebook and Orkut accounts, and dozens of other social networking accounts. Well, we enjoy adding as many people to our network. However, how many of those actually care about you or even bother to send you messages? This aspect came up during a discussion with a friend!

Interestingly, this friend has deleted some of his so-called close friends across social networking sites -- on grounds that he was actually 'done in' by them! Well, he has his own reasons for removing or dropping friends from his lists.

On closer examination of his theory (or practice), I find that I have lists and lists of friends -- but hardly few bother to stay in touch! Maybe, they are all very busy, as I am, as you are.

Right now, few know that I am indisposed, and though some of my so-called friends are aware of my situation, very few of them have even bothered to call up and ask about my well being. Now, I should be sad at their conduct! However, I don't blame them!! I'm neither part of their family nor simply not important enough, and I can live with both the reasons.

What it's also showed to me -- and following on from my friend's reasoning -- that maybe, these folks are not exactly my friends! As he pointed out to me pretty clearly -- some of them only come to me for some advice, or to speak something about their office or boss, or help find a job, or help with some technology stuff, or some other problem, which I, as a friend, pay attention to and offer advice, if asked. He bluntly told me, "They only exploit your good nature."

Maybe, my friend's correct! Maybe, they are all well wishers or acquaintances at best, who I have mistaken as friends. Maybe, some are gaining something from me -- as my friend pointed out so bluntly, the other day! Nevertheless, I'm not the one to decide nor do I intend to sit and judge the actions of my various friends.

I believe that there are still a few good men and women around, who like me, believe in being there for their friends. If some of my friends are indeed selfish and unkind -- as some of their own friends think them to be -- well, best of luck and try to be much more honest with yourself, and with your so-called friends. To each his/her own!

While a majority of analysts at a recent panel discussion on global semiconductor outlook predicted semiconductor growth in the range of 6-11 percent during 2008, some other panelists predicted 2008 to be flat year or a year of negative growth.

There were fears of a possible recession in 2008, along with concerns surrounding consumer spend that could be hit by higher oil prices and the US mortgage crisis.

This panel discussion was organized last week by Semiconductor International, USA. Here is the full report.

Semi forecasts mixed for 2008

Amid concerns of a possible recession in the US economy in 2008, analysts at a recent Webcast hosted by Semiconductor International, were divided in their forecasts for the coming year. A majority predicted semiconductor growth to be in the range of 6-11 percent during 2008, while some others predicted 2008 to be flat year or a year of negative growth.

Anne Craib, director of Market Research, International Affairs and Finance, Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), said the global economic situation needed to be factored in, as well as its impact on consumer demand.

She said: "Semiconductor demand is driven over 50 percent by consumer demand currently. That is something we should increasingly be aware of. Areas like gas prices and the home mortgage market are things that we previously would not have paid much attention to that we have had to take into account in our forecasting this cycle.” She was confident of the semiconductor industry reaching 7-8 percent CAGR during 2008.

Steve Szirom, President, InsideChips.com, added that many economists were predicting recession in 2008. He said: "The demand-supply balance should be somehwat better than this year. We may have a demand driven recession." He adopted a pessimistic view for 2008, predicting -8 percent growth.

DRAM weak, NAND bright

Gary Grandbois, principal analyst for iSuppli Corp., noted: “We have reduced our forecast to 7.5 percent for 2008 and think it might go lower than that. We think it’s going to be a negative first half. Certainly in the DRAM area, it’s looking very poor. We think it will improve in the second half, almost mirroring 2007, but giving us a far weaker year in 2008 than we’ve expected.”

Richard Gordon, Managing Vice President, Semiconductors, Gartner Dataquest Research, agreed with Grandbois, adding that DRAM would see a negative side in 2008. "Our forecast is 6 percent for 2008, and it doesn't factor in the US recession," he said.

While the DRAM market has been predicted to be negative next year, analysts see a positive market for NAND in 2008. New applications, such as WUSB (wireless USB), increase in cell phones, higher content in portable media players, etc., are likely to drive growth.

Commenting further on the outlook for 2008, Moshe Handelsman, President, Advanced Forecasting Inc., noted that 2007 would be the peak of current IC cycle. "From that point on, the underlying demand for semiconductors will decline and decline in 2008. We are negative about 2008," he added.

Carl Johnson, Executive Director, Research Infrastructure, concurred that the industry had become much more global. "We now have to look at the mortgage debacle, etc. Consumers will be very tight in first half of this year." He added, "I would say, next year's going to be flat."

Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor industry analyst, said the growth would be about 8.15 percent during 2008. "The dynamics of the market and the industry will change month-to-month as well," he quipped.

Capex likely to dip in 2008

Regarding capex in 2008, Carl Johnson of Research Infrastructure, expects the next year to be bumpy as far as capital spending is concerned. "We're in a downturn right now. Foundries, who are investing lot more money in older process generations, and that is a function of some of the other older IDMs and fabs, are actually shutting down and saying, 'we can go over to the foundries and process wafers for less than what we can do it on our own'. We are seeing lot of consolidation within the fab space. Mid-level players are consolidating. The customer base is clearly narrowing."

The cost of designing some of these leading-edge devices, and getting them to market, and then following it up with another product, if you don't want to be a one-product guy, is a real challenge. That is limiting the number of players that are going into the mega fabs. So, the field is narrowing in 65nm, and 45nm, and as we get to below 45nm, the field is going to get much, much narrower.

According to him, capital spending is likely to be down in 2008. "I am predicting 10 percent down next year. There's also going to be a great consolidation in the devices manufacturing community, and also in the capital equipment community. We are seeing a number of M&A activities in the capital equipment business. It will also go into the supply chain business."

Gartner's Richard Gordon said the research firm was forecasting capex to be down by -15 percent in capex in 2008, and that includes -30 percent in the DRAM sector. He added: "Looking at the individual companies in the DRAM space, I won't be surprised to see that go even lower. So, -15 percent in capex can get even worse as 2008 unfolds. We will see it coming back. But, it will take a while for demand to catch up with supply."

EDA industry in catch-up mode

The EDA industry is said to be lagging behind the semiconductor industry at the moment, and is in the catch-up mode, according to Gary Smith, President, Gary Smith EDA.

Commenting on the outlook for the EDA market, Smith said the EDA industry is in a lttile unusual position. He said: "The market's been flat for the past four years. Tools for 65nm, 45nm silicon design have also been delayed." The R&D was not put in because of the recession. "Right now, we are in a position of lag in the market," he added.

EDA tools cover two process generations. The industry is just starting to introduce 65nm and 45nm tools. That generation is being called the DFM generation tool. Smith said: "It is even more important to the semiconductor industry as we run into manufacturing problems that they are relying on design tools to solve, rather than on semiconductor equipment." That's a major shift in the market!

EDA to grow 7.8 percent in 2008

According to him, the industry is now now into a pretty good growth area. "We were 11 percent last year, 10.2 percent to come in this year. We will be a bit down next year at 7.8 percent," he forecast. This has been attributed mainly to the EDA industry's lag in the market. "Some are moving to 32nm. And certainly, a lot of work is being done in 45nm," he added.

Smith noted: "The EDA industry is in the catch-up mode. We will lag them. We are expecting the downturn to really hit us in 2009. However, we are not an industry that goes negative often. No matter what you guys do, you still have to design something. So, when you go into recession, typically, the way you get out of recession is you generally design your way out!"

DFM, ESL growth drivers

Among the growth drivers is the DFM (design for manufacturing) issue, which is increasingly getting more complex. There is said to be a move to restrict the design rules that is in place now for 45nm. "We are going to see major changes in 32nm; that'll have impact on tools," he added.

The other issue is parallel computing that has become a major task for the EDA industry. "With signal threading, we can no longer handle designs over 100 million gates. Of course, at 45nm, you can do a 100mn gates. That rewriting process is another issue that is also slowing out down. That's a full three-year re-write," Smith said.

Further, EDA is also starting to move up into the ESL. The electronic-system level (ESL) is going to shift the EDA market more into the systems market, and serve less on its dependency on the semiconductor world.

New fabs in India, China

There have been a lot of announcements made regarding new fabs, especially in places such as India, China and Brazil.

Gary Grandbois at iSuppli said: "Brazil is a better example. India just announced that they are building new fabs. What we saw at the turn of the century is that the industry split into two areas -- one traditional components manufacturer and second is the SoC manufacturer. Those are the companies that need leading edge fabs."

According to him, the cost of R&D was going out of sight for process development. "We're also seeing consolidation of research groups. We expect that come down to five consortiums or less. All companies can afford do their own process development once the basic process has been developed."

There are going to be different types of fabs. With globalization, lot of countries may decide they want to have a fab. Brazil announced one. "You're going to see them all over the world. The market's going to change," he added.

Anne Craib from the Semiconductor Industry Association said: "If you look at the cost structure, it costs over $1bn to build and operate a fab in the US. The question is where is the fab going to be located? The US companies will continue to be major players. Again, the question is: where is it going to be economically feasible? The interest is outside of the US."

New elements likely in 32nm

On the subject of integration of MEMS, 3D, etc., Carl Johnson from Research Infrastructure said, "A very large topic with the design community is big change in computer architecture -- the big change is the multicore -- that's the biggest driver now."

Jim Feldhan, President, Semico Research Corp., noted that the industry is going to hit limits with silicon processing at some point of time. "We have to bring in new elements. In 32nm, there'll be only a handful of companies who can push real hard there and can afford it."

Push to 450mm fabs unlikely?

Finally, is there be going to be a push to 450mm fabs and how's the impact going to be like?

iSuppli's Gary Grandbois, said that curently the industry was expecting that it would need to abandon silicon in 2020. "If we don't have any silver bullets by then, we are going to use nano stuff to augment CMOS. We don't know what that's going to be."

He added: The issue is: are we going to use silicon at all in 2020? If we start developing equipment for 450mm, we're not going to have that very soon. What they have to consider, what is the payback for that move?"

We would love to hear from you on how you see the semiconductor industry going in 2008.

The Department of Information Technology, Ministry of Communication and IT, Government of India, needs to be congratulated for coming up with the Special Incentive Package Scheme (SIPS)to encourage investments for setting up semicon fabs, and other micro and nanotechnology manufacturing industries in India!

The "ecosystem units" have been clearly defined as units, other than a fab unit, for manufacture of semiconductors, displays including LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, any other emerging displays; storage devices; solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro and nanotechnology products; and assembly and test of all the above products.

Early last month, I was in conversation with some companies from Israel who were looking to develop business in India. Now, they, and others, have clear guidelines to follow. One of the companies, Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd, should feel happy that the definition of "ecosystem" includes assembly and test of products.

It really excites me to see all the possibilities in front of India. If this goes on well, India would be in for a great ride in electronics manufacturing, and in the semicon space.

In the same context, the Bangalore Nano 2007, which will be held in December, could not be better timed. There should be a whole lot of companies looking to be present at this show!

India's now on the threshold of major initiatives in the electronics manufacturing space. Some semicon fabs will also come up, and the number of fabless companies should likely increase. Maybe, TSMC and Tower could oblige with some foundries too!

Ever seen people doing their level best to destroy something that has been doing good for them? Or, rather, people destroying a nice looking house where they live, simply because it was looking nice? Keep it simple -- ever seen too many cooks trying their best to spoil the broth?

I relate such things to folks who don't know what to do when suddenly faced with a good thing. They must beat that thing to a pulp to get it back to the shape they are used to seeing all their lives. You know, just like folks who are used to riding bullock carts most of their lives are given a Mercedes, and then they simply don't know how to run it smoothly, and have no clue how to handle it!

Further, such folks don't even bother to know what is a Mercedes capable of doing, how it'll cruise smoothly at high speeds on highways, and how good those brakes are! In short, they don't even spend time to know what all that Merc is capable of doing. Rather, they try to run it on their whims and fancies. And, it has never worked.

Translating this in business terms, there are companies that plod, that run, and that cruise at high speed. To cruise at high speed, you need to take informed, judicious decisions. That may also involve throwing out some of the old things that would have outlived their usefulness. Or, simply get your employees to gear up to understand and take on fresh and pending challenges in a new way. There's a need to re-invent yourself.

There is nothing called one size fits all! People need to understand that the same old techniques that were useful in the past, would not work in the current day environment. It also calls for taking on a lot of responsibility on part of individuals, instead of adopting an ostrich policy, and assume that problems would disappear on their own.

Different situations need different tactics, just like cricket. You cannot afford to become repetitive to the point of sounding like a broken record and behaving monotonously.

We love to talk about good governance, but fail to practise it ourselves, especially when it comes to our own businesses. For example, what's LG doing differently that an Indian company can't do? The management practices are best practices. Simply adopt those and try to follow as close as possible. Then see the results.

Otherwise, there will be numerous cases of people used to bullock carts getting hold of Mercedes and running haywire, without caring for others around them. The results would be likewise. Don't pass the buck! It starts and ends with you!!

If you do not have the wherewithal to run a project, do not pretend. Leave that to professionals or those who are good at it. Or, suffer! Worse, if you don't learn from your mistakes, you will continue to repeat those mistakes till the time you "breach" and not 'reach' your level of incompetence.

The global semiconductor industry can breathe a sigh of relief, hopefully, following the recent report by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), which has said that worldwide semicon sales were up sharply in August 2007.

According to the SIA press release, semicon sales grew to $21.5 billion in August 2007, an increase of 4.9 percent over August 2006, when sales were $20.5 billion, and an increase of 4.5 percent from July of this year when sales were $20.6 billion.

The release further adds that sales of NAND flash memory devices led the growth as supplies tightened and prices firmed. NAND flash sales were up by 48 percent compared to August 2006 and up by 19 percent from July of this year.

Yes, August is historically, the start of a long holiday season build by various manufacturers of electronics products, as SIA also mentions. This drives the demand for a wide range semicon related products.